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“ ”People overvalue their knowledge and underestimate the probability of their being wrong.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (born 1 January 1960 in Amioun, Lebanon) is an essayist, epistemologist, researcher, and former practitioner of mathematical finance.
Biography information from Wikiquote
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The scientist’s behavior while facing the refutation of his ideas has been studied in depth as part of the so-called attribution bias. You attribute your successes to skills, but your failures to randomness. This explains why these scientists attributed their failures to the “ten sigma” rare event, indicative of the thought that they were right but that luck played against them. Why? It is a human heuristic that makes us actually believe so in order not to kill our self-esteem and keep us going against adversity.
By all means, avoid words — threats, complaints, justification, narratives, reframing, attempts to win arguments, supplications; avoid words!
It is as if the mission of modernity was to squeeze every drop of variability and randomness out of life — with the ironic result of making the world a lot more unpredictable, as if the goddesses of chance wanted to have the last word.