It's not so much that history is simply cyclical, it seems to progress via recursive, repeated fractal patterns with minute variations.

I've learned, through history and experience, that not all progress is gradual or linear. Sometimes it simply goes from one plateau to another. Sometimes we fall back tragically. Sometimes we leap forward and achieve things beyond the realm of what we thought possible. I believe that our job is to provide the force propulsion that will get us to a higher plane.

While we know that history flows forward, it is difficult to realize that we envision it backward. Why is it so?

I wonder, sometimes, whether men and women in fact are capable of learning from history — whether we progress from one stage to the next in an upward course or whether we just ride the cycles of boom and bust, war and peace, ascent and decline.

"Le développement des connaissances préhistoriques et archéologiques tend à étaler dans l'espace des formes de civilisation que nous étions portés à imaginer comme échelonnées dans le temps. Cela signifie deux choses : d'abord que le "progrès" (si ce terme convient encore pour désigner une réalité très différente de celle à laquelle on l'avait d'abord appliqué) n'est ni nécessaire, ni continue ; il procède par sauts, par bonds, ou, comme diraient les biologistes, par mutations. Ces sauts et ces bonds ne consistent pas à aller toujours plus loin dans la même direction ; ils s'accompagnent de changements d'orientation, un peu à la manière du cavalier des échecs qui a toujours à sa disposition plusieurs progressions mais jamais dans le même sens. L'humanité en progrès ne ressemble guère à un personnage gravissant un escalier, ajoutant par chacun de ses mouvements une marche nouvelle à toutes celles dont la conquête lui est acquise ; elle évoque plutôt le joueur dont la chance est répartie sur plusieurs dés et qui, chaque fois qu'il les jette, les voit s'éparpiller sur le tapis, amenant autant de comptes différents. Ce que l'on gagne sur un, on est toujours exposé à le perdre sur l'autre, et c'est seulement de temps à autre que l'histoire est cumulative, c'est-à-dire que les comptes s'additionnent pour former une combinaison favorable. (p.29-30)"

fascinating discussion of the…cyclical nature of history. Mankind is predictable. Governments mistreat people — their own people and others. They always have, and they always will. So the people react. There is action and reaction. This is how history has progressed and how it always will.

If you look at history, even recent history, you see that there is indeed progress. . . . Over time, the cycle is clearly, generally upwards. And it doesn't happen by laws of nature. And it doesn't happen by social laws. . . . It happens as a result of hard work by dedicated people who are willing to look at problems honestly, to look at them without illusions, and to go to work chipping away at them, with no guarantee of success — in fact, with a need for a rather high tolerance for failure along the way, and plenty of disappointments.

History is a construct...Any point of entry is possible and all choices are arbitrary. Still there are definitive moments...We can look at these events and say that after them things were never the same again.

KEEP IN MIND THAT progress is not always linear. It takes constant course correcting and often a lot of zigzagging. Unfortunate things happen, accidents occur, and setbacks are usually painful, but that does not mean we quit.

Some historians hold that history is just one damned thing after another.

History is natural selection. Mutant versions of the past struggle for dominance; new species of fact arise,and old, saurian truths go to the wall, blindfolded and smoking last cigarettes. Only the mutations of the strong survive. The weak, the anonymous, the defeated leave few marks: field-patterns, axe-heads, folk-tales, broken pitchers, burial mounds, the fading memory of their youthful beauty. History loves only those who dominate her: it is a relationship of mutual enslavement.

This you may say of man - when theories change and crash, when schools, philosophies, when narrow dark alleys of thought, national, religious, economic, grow and disintegrate, man reaches, stumbles forward, painfully, mistakenly sometimes. Having stepped forward, he may slip back, but only half a step, never the full step back.

the major advances in civilization are processes that all but wreck the societies in which they occur

Society never advances. It recedes as fast on one side as it gains on the other. It undergoes continual changes; it is barbarous, it is civilized, it is christianized, it is rich, it is scientific; but this change is not amelioration. For every thing that is given, something is taken.