Tell a five-year-old boy he should be a lawyer instead of a tractor driver and he will disagree with every cell in his body.

A good definition of an investing genius is the man or woman who can do the average thing when all those around them are going crazy. Tails drive everything.

Daniel Kahneman once told me about the stories people tell themselves to make sense of the past. He said: Hindsight, the ability to explain the past, gives us the illusion that the world is understandable. It gives us the illusion that the world makes sense, even when it doesn’t make sense. That’s a big deal in producing mistakes in many fields.